November Alpha Dump

Hashblock Capital is an independent Crypto research firm. We deliver actionable, institutional-grade analysis across listed tokens.

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TLDR;

• AI tokens such as $FET, $OCEAN, $GRT, and $AGIX are outperforming into OpenAI’s developer conference scheduled for 6th November.

• $RNDR, a decentralized rendering network, is set to make a major announcement at the upcoming Solana Breakpoint conference.

• $CKB is due to reduce the block reward for mining $CKB by 50% on November 15th. These halving events tend to increase flows and volatility so it’s a token worth watching this month.

• $DYDX’s delayed unlock is due to hit the market on December 1st. After pushing back the 30% supply event earlier this year, will they do it again?

• Hashflow ($HFT) unlocks 74% of its circulating market cap, equal to $41.14m on November 7th

• Aptos ($APT) unlocks 10.09% of its circulating supply, equal to $153.28m on November 12th

• CyberConnect ($Cyber) unlocks 11.43% of its circulating supply, equal to $5,83m on November 14th

• SpaceID ($ID) unlocks 6.43% of its circulating supply, equal to $3.61m on November 22nd.

Amid a broad-based rally driven by ETF approval speculation, Bitcoin broke and held the key $32,000 level which has held since April, and several tokens have seen huge inflows on par with the early stages of the last bull run. This market context rewards traders able to position ahead of key events and catalysts. We’ve flagged some important upcoming events below for the month of November:

Artificial Intelligence Tokens - November 6th

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the main tech theme of 2023. Fueled by the boom of ChatGPT and its subsequent use cases and applications in a wide range of industries, AI development and adoption is accelerating, driven by advances in machine learning, big data, and computing power.

The upcoming OpenAI conference is one of the most anticipated AI events of the year. OpenAI is a leading AI research laboratory, and the conference is expected to feature new advances in research and development, as well as attract a large number of investors and entrepreneurs interested in learning more about the latest AI trends and opportunities.

This event has increased flows into AI tokens, which are currently outperforming the market leading into the conference. Some well-known AI tokens to keep an eye on, which led the last move, include:

Fetch.ai (FET)

Fetch.ai is a decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) platform that enables machines to communicate, learn from each other, and collaborate in a secure and decentralized manner. The platform is powered by a network of autonomous software agents, called Autonomous Economic Agents (AEAs), which can interact with each other and with the real world to perform tasks on behalf of users.

Fetch.ai has a wide range of potential applications, including supply chain management, logistics, finance, and healthcare. For example, AEAs could be used to automate the negotiation and execution of contracts, to optimize supply chains, or to develop new financial products and services.

Ocean Protocol (OCEAN)

Ocean Protocol is a decentralized data-sharing platform that enables data owners to monetize their data and data consumers to access data securely and privately. The platform uses blockchain technology to create a transparent and secure marketplace for data.

Ocean has a number of advantages over traditional data-sharing platforms. First, it allows data owners to maintain control over their data and to choose who can access it. Second, it allows data consumers to access data without having to trust the data owner or a third-party intermediary. Third, it provides a transparent and secure way to monetize data.

The Graph (GRT)

The Graph is a decentralized indexing protocol that allows developers to build and publish open APIs, called subgraphs, for any blockchain network. Subgraphs make it easy for developers to access and query blockchain data without having to run their own nodes or write complex code.

The Graph has a number of advantages over traditional indexing solutions. First, it is decentralized, meaning that it is not controlled by any single entity. Second, it is scalable, meaning that it can handle large volumes of data. Third, it is efficient, meaning that it can return query results quickly.

SingularityNET (AGIX)

SingularityNET is a decentralized marketplace for AI services. The platform allows users to publish and consume AI services in a secure and transparent manner. SingularityNET also provides a variety of tools and resources to help developers build and deploy AI services.

SingularityNET has a number of advantages over traditional AI marketplaces. First, it is decentralized, meaning that it is not controlled by any single entity. Second, it is transparent, meaning that users can see the source code of all AI services before they use them. Third, it is secure, meaning that all AI services are executed in a secure environment.

Oasis Network (ROSE)

Oasis Network is a privacy-preserving blockchain platform that enables developers to build and deploy scalable and secure applications. Oasis Network uses a unique architecture that separates the computation layer from the consensus layer, which allows for better scalability and privacy.

ROSE has a number of advantages over other blockchain platforms. First, it is more scalable and can handle larger volumes of transactions. Second, it is more privacy-preserving, meaning that users can interact with applications without revealing their identities or transaction data. Third, it is more secure, meaning that it is more resistant to attacks.

Render Keynote / 2.0 details? - November 7th

Render Network, a decentralized rendering network, is set to make a major announcement at the upcoming Solana Breakpoint conference. The team will be speaking at the event, which is expected to draw thousands of attendees from the Solana ecosystem and beyond.

In addition to the keynote, Render is rumored to reveal more details surrounding Render 2.0. This major upgrade will bring a number of new features and improvements to the network, including:

• Support for Solana

• Improved performance and scalability

• New pricing model

• New user interface

• Token Burn Mechanism via RNP001 Burn-and-Mint Equilibrium (BME)

Many analysts believe the launch of Render 2.0 is a significant development for the network, which will make it more accessible and affordable to use. Therefore we believe it’s a token worth watching into the event, and could continue to experience significant volatility.

CKB Halving - 15th November

CKB, or Common Knowledge Base, is the native cryptocurrency of the Nervos Network. It is a layer-1 blockchain platform that is designed to be scalable, secure, and user-friendly. CKB is used to pay for transactions on the Nervos Network, and it can also be used to store data and execute smart contracts.

The project, like Bitcoin, uses a halving approach designed to control the rate at which new tokens are minted, promoting scarcity and a steady inflation rate over time. This occurs every 4 years, or every 33,600 blocks, with the next adjustment scheduled for November 15th 2023.

On this date, the block reward for mining $CKB will be reduced by 50%. This means that miners will receive half as many tokens for mining each block, which impacts the supply side of $CKB, thus making them more scarce.

Implications of the CKB halving:

• Reduced inflation: The halving will reduce the inflation rate of CKB by 50%. This will make CKB more scarce and could lead to an increase in price.

• Increased security: The halving will also increase the security of the CKB network. This is because miners will need to spend more resources to mine CKB, which will make it more difficult for attackers to take control of the network.

• Increased demand for CKB: The halving is likely to increase demand for CKB. This is because investors may be more inclined to buy CKB in anticipation of the halving and the potential increase in price.

Despite this catalyst, the market is yet to take notice of the upcoming halving, and subsequently, $CKB has traded in a relatively tight range against $ETH all month. Should the majors hold steady, we believe traders could wake up to this event and chase the token higher in anticipation.

Conference Agenda

There is an unusually large amount of scheduled conferences this month. These are often used by core teams to release important news and updates, which generally result in pre-positioning into the dates. Our 2023 study (to be updated) on event drift in cryptocurrencies showed a significant edge can be gained from trading tokens into these dates as volatility is likely to be elevated.

• Doge Day - November 2nd

• Ape Fest - November 3rd

• NearCon - November 7th - 10th

• Upbit Conference - November 13th

• Solana Breakpoint - November 16th

DYDX delayed unlocking

DYDX, the decentralized exchange (DEX), announced back in January they had signed an amendment to postpone an unlock of around 152m tokens, representing a huge 30% of the total supply. On the announcement, the market took the news positively - sending DYDX 110% higher in the following trading sessions. Given the low circulating float with just 18% of the supply in circulation - the cliff unlock would have increased the circulating supply by 84.4% overnight.

The decision to extend the unlock was made in response to feedback from the community. Many DYDX holders expressed concern that the large unlock would put downward pressure on the price of the token. By extending the unlock to December 1st 2023, the team hoped to ‘give the market more time to digest the tokens and reduce the impact on price.’

As the December 1st unlock date approaches, the recent V4 release raises suspicions of pump-and-dump tactics. In the last bull run, teams announced news before unlock events to boost token prices, then short-sold perpetual contracts and locked in profits before selling tokens back to the market.

With that in mind, we are wary of the large supply that will hit the market on December 1st. The current increase in volatility driven by the V4 release has the potential to act as team/investor exit liquidity, and we anticipate the token being highly traded in the coming month. It’s also worth flagging ahead of time given potential announcements could include further delays to the unlock schedule, changes to staking rewards, or other tokenomic updates, which could also be well-received by the market.

Token Unlocks

Hashflow ($HFT) unlocks 74% of its circulating market cap, equal to $41.14m on November 7th

Aptos ($APT) unlocks 10.09% of its circulating supply, equal to $153.28m on November 12th

CyberConnect ($Cyber) unlocks 11.43% of its circulating supply, equal to $5,83m on November 14th

SpaceID ($ID) unlocks 6.43% of its circulating supply, equal to $3.61m on November 22nd.

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