The Week Ahead - 06/11/2023

Hashblock Capital is an independent Crypto research firm. We deliver actionable, institutional-grade analysis across listed tokens.

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TLDR;

• AI tokens are likely to be volatile. In the leadup to Open AI’s developer conference on November 6th, tokens like $AGIX, $FET, $OCEAN, and $GRT have outperformed significantly. These names may be vulnerable once the conference is over.

• $HFT is due to experience significant inflation in the coming months. This begins with a large cliff unlock on November 7th, equal to a 75.32% increase in the circulating supply.

• Rumors are circulating that Ripple could announce an IPO at their upcoming ‘Swell’ event in Dubai, scheduled for November 8th. We see the chances of this as slim, however remain alert to the possibility of a major announcement.

• $NEAR has rallied over 27% into Nearcon 2023 in anticipation of large product and partnership announcements. We believe some mean reversion could occur post-event as the ‘conference premium’ gets priced out.

Open AI developer event - 6th November

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the main tech theme of 2023. Fueled by the boom of ChatGPT and its subsequent use cases and applications in a wide range of industries, AI development and adoption are accelerating, driven by advances in machine learning, big data, and computing power.

The upcoming OpenAI conference is one of the most anticipated AI events of the year. OpenAI is a leading research laboratory, and the conference is expected to feature new advances in research and development, as well as attract a large number of investors and entrepreneurs interested in learning more about the latest AI trends and opportunities.

In the lead-up to this event, several ‘AI’ tokens have rallied hard - some outperforming Ethereum and the wider market by 40-60% in the last month alone. Our thoughts are this rally may struggle once the event ends, and some mean reversion may occur to the downside on a relative basis. Either way, the AI names are likely to be volatile in the coming week and provide opportunities for traders.

Hashflow’s Huge Unlock - November 7th

Hashflow is a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator that enables users to trade digital assets on top blockchains including Ethereum, Arbitrum, Avalanche, BNB Chain, Optimism, and Polygon in just a matter of seconds.

Hashflow is unique in that it uses a request-for-quote (RFQ) model to execute trades. This means that traders request quotes from professional market makers, who then provide the best prices available. This eliminates slippage, which is a common problem on DEXs.

Hashflow also offers a number of other advantages over traditional DEXs, including:

• Zero slippage: Hashflow's RFQ model ensures that trades are executed at the best prices available, with no slippage.

• MEV protection: Hashflow is protected from miner extractable value (MEV), which is a type of front-running attack that can be exploited on DEXs.

• Bridgeless cross-chain swaps: Hashflow allows users to swap assets between different blockchains without having to use a bridge, which can be slow and expensive.

• Capital efficiency: Hashflow's RFQ model reduces the amount of capital that traders need to lock up in order to trade.

The HFT token is the protocol’s governance token, and plays a number of roles within the ecosystem:

• Governance: HFT holders can use their tokens to vote on proposals that affect the future of the protocol.

• Staking: HFT holders can stake their tokens to earn rewards and unlock additional features on the platform.

  

  $HFT’s liquid supply curve

Out of a total supply of 1 billion tokens, just 22.72% is currently unlocked, meaning $HFT is due to experience significant inflation in the coming months. This begins with a large cliff unlock on November 7th, equal to a 75.32% increase in the circulating supply.

The huge unlock event, set to occur on November 7th is unprecedented in its size, almost market-wide. These extreme events tend to bring large volatility, and considering the significant underperformance since October’s 1.37% unlock event - representing a tiny fraction of this month’s, it’s a token worth watching this week.

Ripple Swell / IPO Rumours - November 8th

The upcoming Ripple Swell event, scheduled for November 8-9 in Dubai, has generated a buzz of excitement within the crypto community, with many anticipating a potential initial public offering (IPO) announcement. This speculation has been fueled by a recent job posting for a "Senior Shareholder Communications Manager", a role that would typically be associated with a company preparing for an IPO.

This posting has led the speculation they will announce plans at Ripple Swell, however, the team has not confirmed these rumors. Our view is the chances of this occurring are slim. A tumultuous relationship with the SEC, and complex legal considerations would likely play into this decision, however, we remain alert to the possibility of an announcement and would see this as a huge milestone for the company.

Nearcon - 8th-10th November

In the last month, we’ve seen a significant ‘conference premium’, that is - tokens outperforming in the buildup to specific events in anticipation of upcoming news. One that stands out to us this week is Nearcon 2023.

The team has announced that it plans to use the event to release information on product releases and partnerships. Since this blog was released, $NEAR has outperformed the market by 27% as traders pre-positioned. This year has greatly favored fading these moves, and we don’t see why this event should be any different. The ‘big’ event of the conference seems to be a partnership announcement, set for release on the 10th of November at 13:00 GMT. Once this event is out of the way, we’ll be looking to lean on the short side of the token looking for a mean reversion lower.

That’s all for this week. Follow us on Twitter for more insights or join our email list to get real-time analysis on catalysts, events, and flows.