The Week Ahead - 13/11/2023

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TLDR;

• Bloomberg raised the possibility that the SEC could approve a significant number of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the coming week. This potential approval window is open until November 17th and could impact the applications of BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie.

• Upbit’s conference, starting on November 13th, is being watched closely followed by traders, who speculate participants may make announcements about new projects, partnerships, or developments.

• $CKB is due to reduce the block reward for mining $CKB by 50% on November 15th. These halving events tend to increase flows and volatility so it’s a token worth watching this week.

Bitcoin ETF approval window 9th - 17th November

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be poised to approve a significant number of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the coming week. This possibility was raised by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart in a recent research note, which highlighted a favorable alignment of factors that could expedite the SEC's decision-making process.

The applications of BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie for spot Bitcoin ETFs were all delayed simultaneously. This synchronization could facilitate a more streamlined approval process for these applications, with the current window for the SEC to approve all 12 pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications ending on November 17, 2023. This deadline arises from the agency's obligation to rule on applications within a specific timeframe.

It’s worth mentioning that analysts currently pin a 90% probability of ETF approvals by 10th January 2024. This leaves the market vulnerable to a sell-off should they be rejected.

Upbit Conference - November 13th

The Upbit D Conference (UDC), scheduled for November 13th, is an annual event organized by Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange. The conference brings together industry leaders, developers, and enthusiasts to discuss the latest trends and advancements in the blockchain space.

Upbit holds a dominant position in the Korean cryptocurrency market in terms of trading volume and customer base, recently surpassing Coinbase and OKX in volumes - managing nearly $30bn in flow. Its listings have historically been seen as a significant factor in token price movements, with many projects experiencing substantial gains following an Upbit listing, especially on the announcement of a KRW cross pair.

This is often viewed as a positive indicator, as it expands the project's accessibility to a wider audience of Korean investors. This can lead to increased trading volume and potentially higher token prices. Look On Chain released the below table, showing which tokens associated with the Korean ecosystem currently have a KRW pair, with $ASTR and $IOTX currently only boasting USDT and BTC liquidity on the exchange.

This is leading to speculation that Upbit could list these pairs over the conference period. In addition, traders are closely monitoring the event for any potential announcements or news that could trigger price movements.

CKB Halving - 15th November

CKB, or Common Knowledge Base, is the native cryptocurrency of the Nervos Network. It is a layer-1 blockchain platform that is designed to be scalable, secure, and user-friendly. CKB is used to pay for transactions on the Nervos Network, and it can also be used to store data and execute smart contracts.

The project, like Bitcoin, uses a halving approach designed to control the rate at which new tokens are minted, promoting scarcity and a steady inflation rate over time. This occurs every 4 years, or every 33,600 blocks, with the next adjustment scheduled for November 15th 2023.

On this date, the block reward for mining $CKB will be reduced by 50%. This means that miners will receive half as many tokens for mining each block, which impacts the supply side of $CKB, thus making them more scarce.

Implications of the CKB halving:

• Reduced inflation: The halving will reduce the inflation rate of CKB by 50%. This will make CKB more scarce and could lead to an increase in price.

• Increased security: The halving will also increase the security of the CKB network. This is because miners will need to spend more resources to mine CKB, which will make it more difficult for attackers to take control of the network.

• Increased demand for CKB: The halving is likely to increase demand for CKB. This is because investors may be more inclined to buy CKB in anticipation of the halving and the potential increase in price.

Despite this catalyst, the market is yet to take notice of the upcoming halving, and subsequently, $CKB has traded in a relatively tight range against $ETH all month. Should the majors hold steady, we believe traders could wake up to this event and chase the token higher.

Upcoming

• YGG Games Summit: This event will bring together YGG members, game developers, and industry experts to discuss the future of gaming and blockchain technology. It will take place on November 25th.

• ILV - Public beta release with Epic games: This is a major milestone for Illuvium, as it will allow players to experience the game for the first time. The public beta will be released on November 28th.

• DyDx’s delayed unlock: The unlock of DyDx tokens, which was originally scheduled for December 1st, has been delayed. A new date has not yet been announced.

• Kava v.15.0 launch: Kava is launching a major upgrade to its blockchain, which will bring a number of new features and improvements. The upgrade is scheduled for December 7th.

• Enjin Fuel Tanks Launch: Enjin is launching a new product called Enjin Fuel Tanks. This will allow users to earn passive income by staking their ENJ tokens. The launch date is yet to be announced but is expected in December.

• Eth Cancun upgrade: The Eth Cancun upgrade is a major upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain. It is scheduled for Q1 2024.

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